Tuesday, February 05, 2008

Oscars Predictions - 2008

Here's a breakdown for this year's Oscars.  My record hasn't been too good over the last couple of years, but whatever.  Here we go!
   
80th ANNUAL ACADEMY AWARDS

BEST PICTURE
"Atonement"
"Juno"
"Michael Clayton"
"No Country for Old Men"
"There Will Be Blood"
PREDICTION - "Atonement". The Academy loves sweeping epics, and it's less oblique than "Blood" and "Old Men."

BEST ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett, "Elizabeth: The Golden Age"
Julie Christie, "Away From Her"
Marion Cotillard, "La Vie en Rose"
Laura Linney, "The Savages"
Ellen Page, "Juno"
PREDICTION - Marion Cotillard, "La Vie en Rose."  Cate Blanchett already has her "Elizabeth" win.  "Juno" is too sweet a movie to win anything but a screenplay award (if it's lucky) and the Academy loves biographical roles.  This one is a shoo in.

BEST ACTOR
George Clooney, "Michael Clayton"
Daniel Day-Lewis, "There Will Be Blood"
Johnny Depp, "Sweeney Todd"
Viggo Mortensen, "Eastern Promises"
Tommy Lee Jones, "In the Valley of Elah"
PREDICTION - Daniel Day-Lewis, "There Will Be Blood."  If anyone but DDL wins this one, I may have to give up going to the movies.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett, "I'm Not There"
Ruby Dee, "American Gangster"
Saoirse Ronan, "Atonement"
Amy Ryan, "Gone Baby Gone"
Tilda Swinton, "Michael Clayton"
PREDICTION - Saoirse Ronan, "Atonement."  I have a feeling this movie will clean up at the awards.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Casey Affleck, "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
Javier Bardem, "No Country for Old Men"
Hal Holbrook, "Into The Wild"
Philip Seymour Hoffman, "Charlie Wilson's War"
Tom Wilkinson, "Michael Clayton"
PREDICTION - Javier Bardem, "No Country for Old Men."  The Academy and the Globes have been fairly consistent in this category. 

BEST DIRECTOR
Paul Thomas Anderson, "There Will Be Blood"
Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, "No Country for Old Men"
Julian Schnabel, "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
Tony Gilroy, "Michael Clayton"
Jason Reitman, "Juno"
PREDICTION - Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, "No Country for Old Men."  Haven't seen it, but I'm pulling for these guys over the sappiness and nihilism.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Diablo Cody, "Juno"
Nancy Oliver, "Lars and the Real Girl"
Tony Gilroy, "Michael Clayton"
Brad Bird, Story by Jan Pinkava, Jim Capobianco, Brad Bird, "Ratatouille"
Tamara Jenkins, "The Savages"
PREDICTION - Diablo Cody, "Juno."  Ratatouille has a great script, but I have a feeling this one is a lock given its commercial success.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Paul Thomas Anderson, "There Will Be Blood"
Christopher Hampton, "Atonement"
Ronald Harwood, "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, "No Country for Old Men"
Sarah Polley, "Away From Her"
PREDICTION - Paul Thomas Anderson, "There Will Be Blood."  This would be an upset over "Atonement," but the freedom PT takes with the adapted material should be award enough.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
"Beaufort" (Israel)
"The Counterfeiters" (Austria)
"Katyn" (Poland)
"Mongol" (Kazakhstan)
"12" (Russia)
PREDICTION - Not a fair fight, since I haven't seen any of the movies in this category.

BEST ANIMATED FILM
"Persepolis"
"Ratatouille"
"Surf's Up"
PREDICTION - "Ratatouille."  "Persepolis" is a close second, but I believe the art-houseishness of the movie may not be enough to save it.

BEST ART DIRECTION
"American Gangster"
"Atonement"
"The Golden Compass"
"Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street"
"There Will Be Blood"
PREDICTION - "Atonement."  If nothing else, I'd expect to see "Sweeney," but everyone seems to love this movie's look.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
"The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford" Roger Deakins
"Atonement," Seamus Mcgarvey
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly," Janusz Kaminski
"No Country For Old Men," Roger Deakins
"There Will Be Blood," Robert Elswit
PREDICTION - "Atonement."  Like I said, this movie will take most of the major awards.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
"Across the Universe," Albert Wolsky
"Atonement," Jacqueline Durran
"Elizabeth: The Golden Age," Alexandra Byrne
"La Vie En Rose," Marit Allen
"Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber Of Fleet Street," Colleen Atwood
PREDICTION - "Elizabeth: The Golden Age."  The Academy loves period pieces for this category.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
"No End in Sight"
"Operation Homecoming: Writing the Wartime Experience"
"Sicko"
"Taxi to the Dark Side"
"War/Dance"
PREDICTION - Same for this one.  I haven't seen any of these films.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
"Freeheld"
"La Corona" ("The Crown")
"Salim Baba"
"Sari's Mother"
PREDICTION - What?

BEST FILM EDITING
"The Bourne Ultimatum," Christopher Rouse
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly," Juliette Welfling
"Into the Wild," Jay Cassidy
"No Country for Old Men," Roderick Jaynes
"There Will Be Blood," Dylan Tichenor
PREDICTION - "There Will Be Blood," Dylan Tichenor.  Why not?

BEST MAKEUP
"La Vie en Rose"
"Norbit"
"Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End"
PREDICTION - "Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End."  Haven't seen the other two, but Norbit winning any award would just be wrong.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
"Atonement", Dario Marianelli
"The Kite Runner", Alberto Iglesias
"Michael Clayton", James Newton Howard
"Ratatouille", Michael Giacchino
"3:10 to Yuma", Marco Beltrami
PREDICTION - "Atonement."  I'd like to see Giaccino win, since his work on the Incredibles was so awesome, but the score for Ratatouille was not as memorable. 

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
"Falling Slowly" from "Once"
"Happy Working Song" from "Enchanted"
"Raise It Up" from "August Rush"
"So Close" from "Enchanted"
"That's How You Know" from "Enchanted"
PREDICTION - "Falling Slowly" from "Once."  Easily, the best soundtrack of the year.  Based on this movie alone, I have to pick up an album by The Frames.

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
"I Met the Walrus"
"Madame Tutli-Putli"
"Même Les Pigeons Vont au Paradis (Even Pigeons Go to Heaven)"
"My Love (Moya Lyubov)"
"Peter & the Wolf"
PREDICTION - Same gap here.  I should really watch these at some point.

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
"At Night"
"Il Supplente (The Substitute)"
"Le Mozart des Pickpockets (The Mozart of Pickpockets)"
"Tanghi Argentini"
"The Tonto Woman"
PREDICTION - I really should see some of these auxiliary award nominees.

BEST SOUND EDITING
"The Bourne Ultimatum"
"No Country For Old Men"
"Ratatouille"
"There Will Be Blood"
"Transformers"
PREDICTION - "Transformers."  The best technical movie has to win the best technical awards.

BEST SOUND MIXING
"The Bourne Ultimatum"
"No Country For Old Men"
"Ratatouille"
"3:10 to Yuma"
"Transformers"
PREDICTION - "Transformers."  Why not?

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
"The Golden Compass"
"Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End"
"Transformers"
PREDICTION - "Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End."  While Transformers was amazing, they can't win 'em all.  I take a mulligan here.

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